Mosaic is Idling Two Phosphate Facilities in Brazil

As part of its efforts to reduce costs and redeploy capital, the Mosaic Company announced it will start the process of idling and demobilizing a mining and chemical complex and a facility that performs related activities in Brazil. Mosaic expects that idling its facilities will reduce annual phosphate production at the Brazil facility by one million tons. However, Mosaic said the impact on earnings will be limited due to currently high sulfur prices. The company anticipates a pre-tax financial impact of $350 million to $400 million in early 2026, largely tied to asset impairments and closure costs. For agriculture, the reduction in phosphate supply could contribute to tighter fertilizer markets, adding potential cost pressure for farmers already facing elevated input expenses. The move will also cut the Mosaic workforce at the two locations. 

Soybean Farmers Invest in Great Lakes Exports

Soybean farmer leaders are investing in export infrastructure to strengthen supply chains and expand global market access, highlighted by a recent project at the Port of Milwaukee. On March 31, representatives from the Soy Transportation Coalition presented a $200,000 ceremonial check supporting the Phase II expansion of the Agriculture Maritime Export Facility. The expansion, completed April 2, increases capacity to ship U.S. soybeans and soybean meal to international buyers. The investment comes as the soybean industry ramps up processing to meet growing demand for renewable fuels, which is increasing supplies of soybean meal. Expanding export capacity is seen as critical to maintaining market balance and supporting farm prices. Leaders also emphasized the importance of diversifying transportation routes. Strengthening infrastructure along the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Seaway improves supply chain resilience and reduces reliance on traditional export hubs. For farmers, the project represents a strategic step toward improving profitability and navigating an increasingly uncertain global trade environment.

Iran Ceasefire Won’t Immediately Lower Fertilizer Prices

Earlier this week, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, so what does that mean for fertilizer prices? Farm Progress said the deal does include a commitment from Iran to allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (hor-MOOZ). However, that likely doesn’t mean fertilizer shipments immediately restart. A global analyst for the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services said the Strait’s limited reopening has taken some of the “immediate panic” out of the world fertilizer markets. However, shipping remains far from normal levels, and no one knows exactly how much fertilizer will move out of the Strait in the meantime. “Even with the Strait technically open,” Farm Progress reported, “cargoes may face delays and elevated war risk insurance, so normal trade resumption could take weeks or months.” A DTN fertilizer report said retail prices continue to spike, and in many cases by double-digits. 

Kentucky Passes Pesticide Liability Limitation Law

Kentucky has become the most recent state to pass a bill limiting liability for pesticide manufacturers after state lawmakers overrode the Governor’s veto of SB 199. Similar to bills recently passed in Georgia and North Dakota last year, SB 199 amends Kentucky law so that a federally registered pesticide label would be considered a “sufficient warning label” for any state law concerning a “duty to warn.” The law is intended to address lawsuits filed by plaintiffs in state court who argue that a pesticide manufacturer failed to warn consumers about health risks related to the use of a particular pesticide, often when the federal registered label for the pesticide doesn’t require such a warning. Following the passage of SB 199, pesticide manufacturers that get sued for failure to warn in Kentucky will be able to rely on their federally registered pesticide labels as a complete defense. 

RFA Endorses USDA Data, Recommends Adjustments

USDA data and analysis remain essential to agricultural markets, earning praise as the “gold standard” among global statistical agencies, according to comments submitted by the Renewable Fuels Association. In response to a USDA request for feedback, RFA Chief Economist Scott Richman emphasized the critical role USDA data plays in ensuring transparency and efficiency across commodity markets. He noted that the agency’s reports are widely used by industry stakeholders and policymakers, including the Environmental Protection Agency, when setting Renewable Fuel Standard requirements. Richman urged maintaining adequate funding and staffing to preserve the quality and reliability of USDA data, even as other priorities are reviewed. He also encouraged continued modernization, including improved online access and periodic updates to data collection processes. Additionally, he called for ongoing engagement with stakeholders through annual data meetings and feedback opportunities, particularly before any major changes to longstanding reports or datasets are considered.

April WASDE Shows Higher Than Expected Wheat Stocks

Other than higher-than-expected wheat stocks, there weren’t many surprises in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA. The 2025-2026 wheat outlook is for slightly higher supplies, marginally lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. The ending stocks were raised to 938 million bushels, ten percent above last year and the largest since 2019-2020. The season-average wheat price was raised a nickel to $5. The corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. Feed and residual use was unchanged at 6.2 billion bushels. The season-average corn price was raised five cents to $4.15 per bushel. The outlook for soybean supply and use includes higher crush, lower exports, and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean crush rose by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion on increased soybean meal domestic use. The season-average soybean price for 2025-2026 is forecast at $10.30 per bushel, up by ten cents.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index report for March. After the close, USDA will release a series of follow-up reports to Thursday's WASDE such as updating the Feed Grains and wheat databases at 1 p.m. CDT. At 2:30 p.m. CDT, the CFTC will round out the week with the Commitments of Traders report, updating positions as of Tuesday, April 7.

Weather

A cold front has largely stalled from the Kansas-Oklahoma border up through the Ohio Valley on Friday morning. That front will cause periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, including parts of the very dry southwestern Plains.

The JBS Strike in Greeley, Colorado, is Over For Now

A three-week strike by almost 4,000 employees at the JBS beef processing plant in Greeley, Colorado, is ending as employees were scheduled to return to work on Tuesday, April 7. MSN reports that the employees returned to work without a new contract as JBS agreed to resume negotiations this week. Union President Kim Cordova calls returning to the table a win, noting that no negotiations were scheduled while the strike was in progress, and warned that a strike could resume if talks fail. JBS said the company is offering the same package as in previous negotiating sessions and maintained that its final offer is unchanged. While union leadership said this is a victory, some workers expressed confusion and disappointment at returning to work without a ratified contract. They say the company’s offer doesn’t cover rising costs of living and ongoing safety concerns in the plant.

NCGA Survey Shows Rising Alarm Over Fertilizer Costs

U.S. corn farmers are growing increasingly concerned about fertilizer affordability and availability, with worries extending beyond the current planting season. That’s according to new survey results released by the National Corn Growers Association. Surveys conducted in late March show that while many growers secured fertilizer for the 2026 crop, anxiety is rising sharply for 2027. For every farmer concerned about 2026, nearly two report greater concern for the following year. “Fertilizer prices were high even before the war in Iran began,” said NCGA President Jed Bower. “Market stress has only intensified the situation.” Prices have climbed amid the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions, while lower corn prices have hampered affordability. Farmers now need a record 185 bushels of corn to buy one ton of urea. Ongoing trade disputes and tightening global supplies are adding further uncertainty, shaping decisions for future growing seasons.

CoBank: Fallout of Rising Fuel and Energy Costs Hit Rural America Hardest

Rising energy and fuel costs are placing increasing strain on rural American communities, even as the broader U.S. economy shows signs of resilience in early 2026. CoBank said a strong first quarter, marked by steady job growth, solid consumer spending, and continued investment, has done little to shield rural areas from the outsized impact of surging gasoline and diesel prices. Conflict in the Middle East has fueled volatility in global oil markets, and despite record domestic production, U.S. fuel prices remain closely tied to those disruptions. For rural households and businesses, energy is a larger and less flexible expense. Longer driving distances, limited public transportation, and heavy reliance on diesel for farming, freight, and construction mean rising fuel costs quickly erode incomes and raise operating expenses. These pressures extend beyond the farm. Higher diesel prices increase the cost of transporting food and goods into rural areas, driving up local prices and compounding inflation.

Weekly Ethanol Production Moves Higher

U.S. ethanol production rebounded in early April, offering a modest bright spot for rural economies. That’s according to new data from the Energy Information Administration analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. For the week ending April 3, ethanol output rose 3.8 percent to 1.12 million barrels per day, which was well above both last year’s levels and the three-year average. Strong production supports corn demand, a key driver of income in many farming communities. However, other indicators point to mixed conditions. Gasoline demand, a proxy for fuel consumption, fell 1.4 percent to a five-week low, reflecting softer overall energy use. Meanwhile, ethanol blending slipped slightly, suggesting some near-term pressure on domestic consumption. Ethanol exports surged 65 percent, reaching their highest level in months, helping offset weaker domestic demand. For rural America, where biofuels production underpins local economies, the data highlights how shifting energy demand continues to influence farm income and regional economic stability.

Farmland Values in Illinois Are Stabilizing After Years of Growth

After several years of rapid gains, Illinois farmland values are entering a period of stabilization, with rural landowners and farm operators adjusting to a more cautious economic outlook. According to a new survey from the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, most market participants expect modest downward pressure on land prices in the near term. While long-term confidence in farmland remains strong, 61 percent of respondents anticipate values will decline in 2026. The shift follows substantial appreciation in the early 2020s and is being driven by tighter crop margins, rising input costs, and a broader slowdown in the agricultural economy. For farmers, higher expenses for fuel, fertilizer, and financing are reducing profitability, limiting their ability to bid aggressively on land. Despite this, the expected downturn is viewed as controlled rather than a sharp correction. Strong balance sheets and continued interest in alternative land uses, such as renewable energy and data infrastructure, are helping support underlying demand.

USDA Creates the National Proving Grounds Network

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has launched a nationwide initiative to help farmers adopt new technologies with greater confidence amid ongoing economic pressures. Announced by Undersecretary for Research, Education, and Economics Scott Hutchins, the National Proving Grounds Network for AgTech will evaluate agricultural technologies under real-world conditions. “By establishing this coordinated national research network, we’re helping ensure our producers have access to reliable performance data for their investment decisions,” Hutchins said in the announcement. The effort is led by the USDA Agricultural Research Service in partnership with universities and industry groups. The program will generate data on performance and return on investment for tools such as digital and AI-driven technologies, helping farmers make more informed decisions while reducing financial risk. North Dakota-based Grand Farm will serve as the network’s national program manager. For more information, go to the USDA National Proving Grounds Network for AgTech website. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA will release their weekly export sales report Thursday morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT. At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release Personal Consumption Expenditure data for February. At 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release the April issue of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, typically a quiet iteration which will focus on old crop 2025-26 grain market fundamentals.

Weather

A cold front is settling in from the Central Plains into the Midwest on Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms will form near and north of the front. Some of those could be severe across Kansas. Additional isolated showers may form across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as well.

Farmer Sentiment Improves Despite Rising Input Cost Concerns

Farmer sentiment improved in March as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose from 116 points in February to 127. The Current Conditions Index increased by six points, while the Future Expectations Index increased by 14 points. However, the Future Expectations Index this month was still 12 points below last year’s December index and 16 points below 2025’s March index. The percentage of respondents who cited high input costs as their biggest concern increased from 44 to 46 percent during the month. However, the percentage of respondents who think the U.S. is headed in the right direction and who expect land prices to be higher five years from now also increased. The percentage of producers who indicated the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” increased from 59 percent in February to 65 percent in March. A higher percentage also expect land values to increase in the next five years, pointing to more long-term optimism.

Deere Reaches a Settlement in Right to Repair Litigation

Deere & Company announced it has reached a settlement in a multidistrict “right to repair” lawsuit filed in 2022, bringing the case to a close without any admission of wrongdoing. The agreement, pending approval from the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, resolves claims related to customer access to equipment repair resources. Under the terms, Deere will contribute to a class settlement fund to compensate eligible members and cover legal and administrative costs. Deere also reaffirmed its commitment to providing customers and independent service providers with repair tools, manuals, and diagnostic software. “We’re pleased that this resolution allows us to move forward and remain focused on what matters most, which is serving our customers,” said Denver Caldwell, vice president of aftermarket and customer support. Deere said it will continue investing in technology and services that improve equipment uptime for farmers and ranchers.

NCGA President: Bring an End to Import Tariffs to Benefit Farmers

Jed Bower, president of the National Corn Growers Association, said farmers are raising concerns over rising fertilizer costs during what could be one of the most expensive planting seasons on record. He said in an op-ed that actions by major fertilizer producers like The Mosaic Company and J.R. Simplot are key factors contributing to ongoing price pressures. In 2020, Mosaic, supported by Simplot, petitioned for tariffs on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia. Federal regulators approved the request, leading to reduced imports and a sharp increase in domestic prices. Phosphate fertilizers are essential for crop production, particularly for corn, and a limited supply has strained already tight farm budgets. Growers report billions in added costs since the tariffs took effect. “If action isn’t taken soon, the situation will only become more painful,” Bower said. The U.S. International Trade Commission is currently reviewing the tariffs, with farmers urging officials to lift restrictions and ease costs.

Weekly Export Inspections of Corn and Beans Improve

The USDA said inspections of corn and soybeans rose week to week while wheat assessments declined during the week ending on April 2. Corn inspections through the week totaled two million metric tons, up from 1.88 million a week earlier. The agency said that’s also above the 1.61 million metric tons inspected during the same week last year. Examinations of soybeans for offshore delivery rose to just over 779,300 metric tons from 694,000 tons during the previous week. The total was down from the 817,000 assessed at the same point in 2025. Wheat inspections declined week over week to 334,000 metric tons from 386,200 tons a week earlier. That was down from the 816,900 tons inspected a year ago at the same time. Yearly corn and wheat inspections continue ahead of last year’s pace, while soybean inspections continue to lag behind 2025. 

Clean Fuels Alliance Submits Comments on 45Z Credit Rule

Clean Fuels Alliance America has submitted formal comments to the U.S. Treasury Department regarding proposed rules for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, calling for additional clarity as the agency works to finalize the policy. The organization praised Treasury for incorporating earlier industry feedback into the updated proposal. However, it emphasized the need for timely and definitive guidance to support producers navigating the new credit. “The proposed regulations accurately respond to taxpayer comments on prior guidance and provide additional certainty for the industry,” the group stated, while noting that further clarification is still needed. Kurt Kovarik, vice president of federal affairs, said producers are particularly seeking confirmation that the updated rules will apply to fuel sales made in 2025, when the credit took effect. Officials say clearer rules could boost domestic energy production and expand market opportunities for U.S. farmers.

Sorghum Growers Invited to Enter the 2026 NSP Yield Contest

The National Sorghum Producers opened entries for the 2026 National Sorghum Yield Contest, inviting growers nationwide to compete across multiple categories and production methods. Participants will be eligible for state and national awards in East and West regions, with divisions including Irrigated, Dryland No-Till, and Dryland Tillage, as well as an overall Food Grade winner. Organizers say flexible verification options, with either market-based grain ticketing or traditional on-farm weigh-backs, are intended to increase accessibility and participation. The entry deadline is November 24, 2026, with harvest forms due by December 2. “This contest is about more than just yield; it’s about recognizing innovation, sharing knowledge, and pushing the boundaries of what’s possible in sorghum production,” said NSP CEO Tim Lust. Winners will be honored at the 2027 Commodity Classic, highlighting top-performing growers and advancements across the sorghum industry.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The EIA will release their weekly Petroleum Status report Wednesday morning at 9:30 a.m. CDT, including last week's average ethanol production. It will otherwise be an uneventful day for reports, with markets likely to remain tuned into weather forecasts and geopolitical updates.

Weather

A system is moving along the Canadian border on Wednesday, bringing some moderate snow to the Canadian Prairies and scattered showers across the North-Central U.S. Some breezy winds are circling around the system as well. Though some isolated showers may develop over Texas, the rest of the country is likely to be dry with increasing temperatures.

Highs: 20s/40s Canadian Prairies; 30s/50s Northern Plains; 50s/60s Pacific Northwest; 50s/70s Midwest; 60s/70s Central Plains, Southeast; 70s/80s Southern Plains, Delta.

Year-Round E15 is Overdue

U.S. sales of E15 gasoline reached a record 1.52 billion gallons in 2025, up 23 percent from the previous year. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, growth was driven by more stations offering E15 and higher per-station sales. Iowa led the surge, with sales jumping 60 percent to more than 410 million gallons. Minnesota drivers bought an estimated 169 million gallons, bringing the two-state total to 579 million gallons. Nationwide, about 4,600 stations offered E15 by the end of 2025. Lower prices, often 25 cents per gallon cheaper than regular gasoline, and federal infrastructure funding also boosted demand. However, regulatory uncertainty remains a barrier. Temporary summer waivers allow E15 sales, but a lack of permanent approval has slowed broader adoption. Industry groups continue to push for federal legislation enabling year-round nationwide sales. A September 2025 study showed full adoption of E15 would add $25.8 billion to U.S. GDP. 

Five-Year Fertilizer Duty Review is Underway

A five-year review of countervailing duties on phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia is underway. Agri-Pulse reported that fertilizer producers Mosaic and Simplot say they’re in favor of keeping the duties in place. The tariffs range from 16.6 percent to over 47 percent, and have been in place since 2021 when Mosaic filed a countervailing duty case. The Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration and the International Trade Commission are assessing whether the duties are still necessary as the fees are up for a five-year sunset review. National Today reported that Nutrien, one of the largest U.S. producers, said it’s time to lift the tariffs. “The company now says that based on evolving global phosphate supply and demand dynamics since 2021, removing the tariffs would be a constructive step to support U.S. farmers and agricultural productivity,” National Today said.

Grazing Agreement Cuts Red Tape for Ranchers

The American Farm Bureau Federation is backing a new agreement between the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of the Interior aimed at improving grazing access on public lands. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) will strengthen collaboration between ranchers and federal agencies while expanding access to grazing areas. “Public lands grazing supports livestock production, helps reduce wildfire risks, and bolsters rural economies across the western United States,” Duvall said. The agreement is also intended to streamline the permitting process by reducing delays, increasing transparency, and improving efficiency in approvals. Industry leaders say these changes will help ranchers better meet demand for beef and other protein sources while maintaining responsible land use. Supporters view the initiative as a step toward more effective land management and stronger partnerships between government agencies and agricultural producers.

Applications Open for the NFU Beginning Farmer Institute

The National Farmers Union is accepting applications for its Beginning Farmer Institute, a free ten-week online program designed to strengthen farm and ranch businesses. Open to producers ages 18 and older, the competitive program offers weekly training, peer networking, and one-on-one technical assistance. Participants complete expert-led sessions based on The Resilerator, a program of California FarmLink, which includes video lessons and live discussions focused on business management running from October through December. Applicants must submit a resume, reference letter, and essay outlining their operations and future goals. A review panel will evaluate submissions, with admission decisions announced by September 1, 2026. Accepted participants must also pass a background check. Graduates who complete all requirements may be invited to an additional in-person session featuring advanced training, farm tours, and networking opportunities with Farmers Union leadership. For more information or to sign up, go to nfu.org.

USDA’s FAS Awards Over $8 Million for Market Expansion

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service has announced that more than $8.4 million in funding is available to support U.S. agricultural exports through three programs: the Technical Assistance for Specialty Crops Program, Emerging Markets Program, and Quality Samples Program. The funding aims to help farmers and producers overcome technical trade barriers, expand access to international markets, and meet rising global demand for U.S. agricultural goods. Officials say the programs have a proven track record of delivering measurable export growth. “These programs drive growth for U.S. agricultural exports, giving American farmers and ranchers the tools they need to break through unnecessary trade barriers and explore new markets,” said USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg. The initiative is part of broader efforts to strengthen rural economies and improve the U.S. agricultural trade balance by increasing global competitiveness.

Crop Insurance Deadlines are Approaching

The USDA is urging agricultural producers to review and finalize crop insurance decisions ahead of upcoming sales closing deadlines for the 2027 crop year. Key dates vary by crop and location, with major deadlines set for May 1, May 15, July 15, and July 31. Officials recommend producers contact their insurance agents soon, as coverage selections and policy changes must be completed by the applicable closing date. The Risk Management Agency provides tools to help farmers navigate deadlines and coverage options, including the Actuarial Information Browser and the RMA Map Viewer, which outline important reporting and planting dates. Federal crop insurance remains a cornerstone of the farm safety net, offering protection against revenue losses and production risks. Available options include yield coverage, revenue protection, and area risk plans, helping producers maintain financial stability and supporting rural economies. For more information, go to rma.usda.gov.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday looks to be a quiet day for reports. Investors and traders will be closely following updates to the situation in the Middle East, with President Trump's deadline for Iran to agree to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz set to expire at 7 p.m. CDT Tuesday evening.

Weather

A little disturbance is bringing a mix of rain and snow from southern Iowa into southern Illinois early Tuesday morning. That will wind down by midday, but we may see some additional showers Tuesday night in the same areas. This disturbance is ahead of a storm system that is moving through the Canadian Prairies with scattered showers that should move into the Northern Plains by Tuesday night.

Wheat Acreage Falls to Record Low as Farmers Pivot to Higher Returns

U.S. farmers are expected to plant the smallest wheat crop on record this year, continuing a long-term decline as producers shift to more profitable alternatives. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows wheat acreage dropping as low prices and rising input costs squeeze margins. Producers across the Plains are opting for crops such as soybeans and corn, which offer stronger returns despite their own cost pressures. The Wall Street Journal reports persistent drought in key growing regions has also discouraged wheat planting, particularly for winter wheat. Analysts say global competition and ample supplies have kept wheat prices subdued, reducing incentives for U.S. growers. At the same time, higher fertilizer and fuel costs have made wheat less attractive compared to crops with better profit potential. The shift could have long-term implications for domestic supply and export competitiveness, though global markets remain well supplied for now.

Organic Farmers Face Delays in USDA Cost-Share Payments

Organic producers across the U.S. are reporting delays in receiving federal reimbursements intended to offset certification costs, raising concerns about cash flow during a critical time of year. The payments are administered through the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Organic Certification Cost Share Program. Farmers rely on the program to cover a portion of annual certification expenses required to maintain organic status. However, many say payments have been slow or inconsistent, creating financial strain as spring planting ramps up. Advocates told Civil Eats the delays could discourage participation in organic markets, which already face higher production costs and tighter margins than conventional operations. Smaller farms are seen as particularly vulnerable. USDA officials have acknowledged processing challenges but say efforts are underway to improve delivery. In the meantime, producers say timely support is essential to sustain growth in the organic sector.

Farm Bill Draft Reignites Debate over Pesticide Regulation

The newly introduced farm bill proposal is drawing sharp reactions from environmental advocates over provisions that could reshape pesticide regulation nationwide. The legislation, backed by leaders in Congress and informed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency framework, aims to create more uniform standards across states. Supporters argue the changes would reduce regulatory fragmentation and provide farmers with clearer guidance when using crop protection tools. They say consistent rules are critical for maintaining productivity and competitiveness. Opponents contend the proposal could limit states’ ability to impose stricter protections, potentially weakening environmental and public health safeguards. Advocacy groups tell Food Tank the shift may reduce oversight in sensitive ecosystems. The debate comes as lawmakers continue negotiations on the next farm bill, with pesticide policy emerging as a key point of contention between agricultural and environmental priorities.

USDA Sets April Loan Rates as Farmers Weigh Borrowing Costs

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced updated loan interest rates for April, offering a key benchmark for producers making financing decisions ahead of the planting season. Operating loans are set at 4.75%, while farm ownership loans will carry a 5.75% interest rate. The rates reflect broader trends in credit markets as borrowing costs remain elevated compared with recent years. Farmers often rely on USDA-backed loans to cover expenses such as seed, equipment and land purchases. Agricultural economists say higher rates could tighten margins, particularly for producers already facing rising input costs and uncertain commodity prices. Access to affordable credit is expected to play a significant role in planting decisions this spring. Despite the increases, USDA loan programs remain a critical financing tool, especially for beginning farmers and those unable to secure commercial credit.

Forest Service Relocation Plan Sparks Concern in Rural Communities

A federal plan to relocate the headquarters of the U.S. Forest Service from Washington to Utah is drawing mixed reactions from agriculture and rural stakeholders. Officials say the move is intended to bring leadership closer to the lands and communities the agency serves. Supporters argue the shift could improve responsiveness to issues such as wildfire management, grazing and forest health. They say proximity to western landscapes may lead to more practical decision-making. Critics, however, warn the relocation could disrupt research, policy coordination and staffing, potentially weakening the agency’s effectiveness. Some also fear the move may reduce collaboration with other federal agencies based in Washington. The Guardian reports the proposal comes amid broader discussions about federal land management and rural policy. Agriculture groups are closely watching how the change could affect grazing permits and conservation programs tied to forest lands.

Storms Could Disrupt Easter Weekend

A widespread severe weather pattern is expected to impact large portions of the central United States into Easter weekend, with forecasters warning of tornadoes, damaging winds and heavy rain. AccuWeather meteorologists say multiple rounds of thunderstorms will develop from Texas to the Midwest through the weekend as warm, humid Gulf air collides with colder air to the north. The setup is expected to produce large hail, wind gusts up to 80 mph and a risk of tornadoes, particularly across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. The most active period is expected late this week, with storms intensifying before continuing into the weekend. Some areas could see repeated rounds of rain, raising the threat of localized flooding. Over Easter weekend, the severe threat is expected to shift east and weaken slightly, but storms, gusty winds and cooler temperatures could still affect travel and outdoor plans across parts of the South and Midwest.

Monday Watch List

Markets

USDA will release weekly export inspections Monday morning at 10 a.m. CDT. Later in the afternoon, the USDA will restart their weekly Crop Progress reports with an update at 3 p.m. CDT. Otherwise, traders will remain in tune to developments in the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Weather

A cold front is slipping south through the Corn Belt on Monday morning. Streaky showers are falling across the North but are not very heavy or widespread. The front is bringing through a little burst of colder air, though.

KSU Study on the Impacts of Rising Energy Prices on Farmers and Ranchers

A new surge in oil prices will hit farmers right in the bottom line. New estimates suggest a $90-per-barrel market, which could significantly raise production costs across the board. Kansas State University economist Gregg Ibendahl said higher oil prices are already creating a ripple effect through key farm inputs like diesel fuel and fertilizer. “$90 oil would add more than a dollar per gallon to the fuel costs, and that could easily mean another $10,000 per year in total fuel expenses,” he said. “The average Kansas grain farm spent about $20,000 on fuel last year, and that means even a moderate increase can hit budgets hard.” Fertilizer prices are just as big a concern because they’re closely tied to the energy markets. The study showed rising oil prices could push fertilizer expenses up by ten percent. For the average grain farm, that translates into roughly $12,000 in additional costs. 

U.S. Farmers Planting Less Corn and More Soybeans

The latest USDA Prospective Plantings Report shows farmers are planting three percent less corn compared to last year. Producers in South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota will lead the rest of the country in fewer corn acres. South Dakota’s area will fall by 550,000 acres to 6.3 million, the biggest decline in any of the top corn-producing states. The Ag Department said corn acres in Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin will each fall by about 450,000 acres. Soybeans in the U.S. will replace at least some of the corn acres, increasing by four percent compared to 2025. Iowa will see the biggest rise in soybean acres, up by 450,000 over last year. Wisconsin will jump by 370,000 acres, and Nebraska will plant an additional 350,000. Wheat area is likely to shrink by three percent compared to 2025. If accurate, that would be the smallest planted area since recordkeeping began in 1919. 

Illinois Reaches Important B20 Milestone

Clean Fuels Alliance America applauded Illinois for moving to a B20 biodiesel blend requirement, a major milestone that strengthens the state’s leadership in expanding the use of cleaner, domestically-produced biofuels. Effective April 1, the minimum biodiesel blend required to qualify for Illinois’ state sales tax exemption increases from B17 to B20. That represents the final phase of landmark bipartisan legislation passed in 2022. The policy exempts qualifying biodiesel blends from the state’s 6.25 percent sales tax, creating a powerful market incentive to drive adoption. “Illinois has created a model that supports farmers, strengthens fuel markets, and improves air quality all at the same time,” said Jeff Earl, the director of state governmental affairs for Clean Fuels. The biodiesel industry generates $3.2 billion in annual economic activity in Illinois and supports 8,100 jobs across the state. “This is a win for rural communities, the environment, and energy security too,” Earl added. 

MOU Launches Grazing Action Plan

Public lands ranchers joined Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum as the secretaries signed a memorandum of understanding launching their Grazing Action Plan. Leaders and members of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Public Lands Council participated in a roundtable discussing cooperative work to address longstanding challenges for federal lands grazing permittees. “By speeding up the permitting process and expanding the use of targeted grazing, the federal government is ensuring that more ranchers will keep ranching and that rangelands will face less depredation and destruction from wildfires and mismanagement,” said Tim Canterbury, President of the Public Lands Council. The Grazing Action Plan focuses on boosting rancher resiliency by assessing vacant allotments, unifying permitting frameworks between agencies, expanding the use of targeted grazing to prevent wildfires, and establishing a rancher liaison program for wildfire incident command centers. 

Applications are Open for the Ag Innovation Challenge

The American Farm Bureau, in partnership with Farm Credit, is accepting applications for the 2027 Farm Bureau Ag Innovation Challenge through June 5. Now in its 13th year, this national business competition showcases U.S. startup companies developing innovative solutions to challenges faced by American farmers, ranchers, and rural communities. The overall winner of the competition will get $100,000 in startup funds, the runner-up will receive $25,000, and two additional business owners who advance to the final four round will each get $10,000. “Encouraging innovation is essential to keeping American agriculture strong,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “If you’re building a business that can help farmers and rural communities thrive, don’t wait. Apply today.” After the application period closes on June 5, ten semifinalist teams will be selected and announced on September 2. Next, the ten teams will pitch virtually to compete for a spot in the final four round of the contest. 

Bill Would Expand Access to Mental Healthcare for Farmers

In honor of National Ag Day, legislators introduced the bipartisan Agriculture Access to Addiction and Mental Healthcare Act. The bill aims to improve access to mental health and addiction services for farmers and ranchers in rural communities. Wisconsin Congressman Derrick Van Orden, one of the cosponsors, says farmers and ranchers are the nation’s backbone, working tirelessly to feed and fuel America. “This legislation takes an important step toward understanding the gaps in access to mental health and addiction care for our agricultural communities,” Van Orden said. Congressman Joe Neguse (neh-GOOSE) of Colorado said this legislation takes an important first step towards bridging access and care gaps and ensuring that rural America has access to essential healthcare services. “Our farmers, ranchers, and producers are essential to the nation’s food security,” Neguse said, “and we must make sure we’re supporting them with access to healthcare for them and their families.” 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA will release their Weekly Grain Export Sales report Thursday morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT. At the same time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release U.S. trade balance details for February. Of course, traders will also be following the conflict in the Middle East for new developments.

Weather

A storm system in the Plains continues to move northeast through the Midwest on Thursday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop with the system. Some areas of heavy rain and severe weather will be possible. Cold temperatures across the north are causing some snow and freezing rain to accumulate as well. A second storm system is moving through the Pacific Northwest and will continue to push eastward into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains with additional showers and some areas of heavier snow as well.

Ag Secretary Working with Companies to Lower Input Prices

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is working directly with ag input companies to address the still-rising costs of farmer inputs amid warnings of fertilizer supply shortages and ongoing disruptions. Rollins told Fox News last weekend that her agency wants significant relief for farmers. Agri-Pulse reported that the White House is wrestling with high prices for diesel and fertilizer, which have risen sharply since the Iran war began. “We’re now talking about this likely not just as a spring problem, but a problem that will likely last into the fall,” a source told Agri-Pulse. Farmdoc, from the University of Illinois, reports an especially significant spike in the on-farm diesel price. “Prices are now working toward the record-high levels seen in March 2022,” said Nick Paulson, a professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois. Among fertilizer prices, Paulson said urea prices have climbed by 39 percent, the highest jump so far. 

U.S. Farmers Planting Less Corn and More Soybeans

Producers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down three percent from last year. That’s according to the Prospective Plantings Report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026, up four percent from last year. The report is the first official, survey-based estimates of U.S. farmers’ planting intentions. Other key findings include all wheat planted area for 2026 will be 43.8 million acres, down three percent from 2025. Winter wheat planted area, at 32.4 million acres, is down two percent from both the previous estimate and last year. The Grain Stocks Report, also released this week, shows an 11 percent increase in U.S. corn stocks from last year, a ten percent jump in soybean stocks over 2025, and all wheat stored totaled five percent more bushels than last year. 

Poll: Voters Overwhelmingly Support Year-Round E15

Amid rising prices at the pump and volatile global energy markets, an overwhelming majority of registered voters support the expansion of the lower-cost E15 fuel blend and legislation that would make it permanently available nationwide. That’s according to a new poll from Morning Consult, conducted for the Renewable Fuels Association. RFA said the polling results underscore the urgency of securing federal legislation to finally allow sales of E15 year-round. “These results send a clear and unequivocal message to policymakers: American voters want expanded access to lower-cost E15, and they want it now,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “By a margin of eight-to-one, voters support efforts to broaden the availability of the more-affordable, cleaner-burning fuel.” RFA also said hardworking families across the country clearly understand E15 can help them save money while improving U.S. energy security during a time of great uncertainty. 

Egg Prices Ease as Poultry Producers Prepare for Spring Wildfowl Migration

A report from the American Farm Bureau has good news for egg buyers. Egg prices have dropped sharply as production recovers from volatility caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza infections. While detections in January and February rose sharply, with over 15 million birds infected, it’s still 56 percent fewer birds infected than at the same time last year. Detections slowed in March, reflecting producer progress in managing the outbreak. USDA is urging farmers to be vigilant with biosecurity as the wildfowl spring migration gets underway. The migration is typically associated with increased disease pressure from HPAI as wild birds come in contact with domestic flocks. While HPAI does continue to circulate in wild bird populations, the impacts are concentrated in poultry, and broader livestock exposure has been more limited than in recent years. Experts say the limited spillover into other livestock sectors points to a more contained and manageable phase of the outbreak. 

USDA Trade Mission Participants will Head to the Philippines

The USDA will lead a trade mission to the Philippines from April 13–16, with the goal of expanding market access for America’s farmers, ranchers, and producers. The mission follows a trade agreement in July 2025, which opened new opportunities for U.S. ag exports to the Philippines. “USDA is committed to getting American farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses better access to strong markets and fair opportunities abroad,” said Michelle Bekkering, USDA Deputy Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, who will lead the mission. “This mission will connect U.S. exporters to reliable buyers in one of Asia’s fastest-growing markets.” The Philippines is the tenth-largest market for U.S. agricultural and food products, averaging $3.4 billion in annual exports over the past five years. With a population of 118 million, a rapidly expanding middle class, and strong consumer preference for U.S. products, the Philippines offers enormous growth potential for American exporters. 

Klobuchar: Concerns About USDA Data Quality

Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) led ten Democrats in raising concerns to USDA about the reliability of data reports from the agency. They said that a recent Farm Journal survey found 73 percent of ag producers and 78 percent of ag retailers are less confident in USDA reports than in recent years. The Senators’ letter to the agency expressed significant concerns regarding the reliability of USDA reports. “Farmers need reliable data to make critical decisions on what to plant, how to manage risks, and when to market their agricultural products,” the letter said. “Given the importance of reliable data to U.S. farmers, ranchers, and rural communities, it’s critical that USDA maintain the quality and integrity of its data.” The erosion of trust comes after a loss of over 30 percent of the employees at the National Agricultural Statistics Service and almost 25 percent of Farm Service Agency employees.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

The EIA will kick off April with their weekly Petroleum Status report, due out Wednesday morning at 9:30 a.m. CDT. At 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release their final monthly State Stories Conditions Report before weekly Crop Progress reports resume next Monday. Finally, after the close at 2 p.m. CDT, USDA will release their Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings and Grain Crushing and Co-Products Production reports, with crush data for February.

Weather

A front continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Midwest early Wednesday, but the main story is a system moving into the Plains. Some snow has already started to develop in the Northern Plains, increasing throughout the day. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Central and Southern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening, some of which could be severe. Precipitation will spread into the Upper Midwest Wednesday night, which will turn to freezing rain going into Thursday.

Ag Groups Welcome New RFS Volume Obligations

The Environmental Protection Agency released the long-awaited final Renewable Fuels Standard volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, and U.S. ag groups responded positively. “The final rule locks in the highest-ever renewable fuel volume obligations and provides clarity for farmers, ethanol producers, oil refiners, and fuel distributors alike,” said Geoff Cooper of the Renewable Fuels Association. Jed Bower, president of the National Corn Growers Association, said the announcement, combined with the summertime E15 waiver last week, is a “positive move for the nation’s corn growers,” who are navigating an exceptionally difficult environment. Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union, said, “These increased targets for biodiesel and renewable diesel send a strong signal to the marketplace and create meaningful new demand for America’s family farmers and ranchers.” Scott Metzger, president of the American Soybean Association, said farmers “needed a win,” and this announcement delivered that win in a “big way.”  

Ag Retailers Applaud EPA Action on DEF Systems

The Agricultural Retailers Association welcomed the Environmental Protection Agency’s action to address diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) system failures. The ARA called it a timely step to support farmers and agricultural retailers as spring planting gets underway. DEF system malfunctions have caused costly equipment downtime and operational disruptions across agriculture. The EPA’s action to remove the problematic sensor requirement will help keep equipment running and reduce unnecessary delays in the field. “America’s agricultural retailers and growers continue to face high fuel costs and tight margins,” said ARA President and CEO Darren Coppock. “This commonsense relief will help them stay productive and profitable at a critical time of the year.” ARA also emphasized that the timing of the announcement is especially important as farmers prepare for and begin spring planting. ARA’s Board of Directors recently ratified this issue as a policy priority for 2026. 

U.S. Hog Inventory Up Slightly in February

As of March 1, there were 74.3 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, up slightly from March 2025 but down one percent from December 1, 2025. That’s according to the recent USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Other key findings in the report included that of the 74.3 million hogs and pigs, 68.4 million were market hogs, while 5.89 million were kept for breeding. Between December 2025 and February 2026, 33.2 million pigs were weaned on U.S. farms, up one percent from the same period one year earlier. From December through February, hog and pig producers weaned an average of 11.9 pigs per litter. U.S. producers intend to have 2.86 million sows farrow between March and May 2026, and 2.9 million farrow between June and August of this year. Iowa had the largest state inventory at 24.7 million head. 

Sheep Funding Opportunity Available for Summer Fair Season

As fairs, festivals, and farmers’ markets ramp up across the country, the American Lamb Board is offering two funding opportunities to support local educational and promotional efforts that build awareness and drive demand for American lamb. ALB is proud to offer sponsorship funding for events that strengthen and grow the U.S. sheep industry. Organizations hosting events that include educational sessions, tours, or demonstrations, and networking opportunities are encouraged to apply. Requests should include a proposed agenda, event location, and event date. Sponsorship options include promotional materials, up to $400 in value. There’s a $750 and a $1,500 cash sponsorship. ALB also offers a matching promotional funding program designed to increase awareness and demand for American lamb through consumer-focused marketing and promotional efforts. Eligible projects include local consumer-facing promotional events, cooking classes, on-farm tours, and other opportunities. To apply, go to LambBoard.com.

NACD Leadership Advocates for Locally-Led Conservation During Fly-In

The National Association of Conservation Districts leadership and over one hundred locally elected conservation district officials convened last week in Washington, D.C., for the NACD Annual Spring Fly-In. Conservation district officials and their associations engaged directly with members of Congress and federal agencies to advance priorities that strengthen America’s voluntary, locally-led conservation delivery system. As part of their advocacy efforts, conservation leaders underscored the importance of passing a farm bill that strengthens local conservation, maintains a strong FY 2027 funding for NRCS conservation operations, invests in the conservation workforce and local delivery infrastructure, and ensures federal programs remain flexible and responsive to local priorities. “The current model works because it is locally led, partnership-driven, and grounded in trust,” said NACD President Gary Blair. “It depends on strong, sustained investment to continue delivering results.” 

Dry Weather to Continue in the Central and Southern U.S.

National Weather Service maps show that very dry weather will continue across most of western Nebraska, which has already been hit by devastating wildfires. The dry weather will stretch down into the Southern Plains early this week. Red flag fire danger warnings have already been issued in multiple regions amid a forecast of very dry and windy weather. Winds in west-central Nebraska are forecast early this week at 10 to 20 miles per hour, gusting as high as 35 mph. The relative humidity will drop as low as ten percent, and temperatures early this week will climb to almost 90 degrees in multiple locations. Southwestern Kansas will have wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour, while the humidity will fall to around eight percent. “Any fires that develop will catch and spread very quickly in these conditions,” the National Weather Service said in an announcement. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday's trade will center around the release of USDA's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, both at 11 a.m. CDT. Otherwise, traders will remain in tune to developments regarding the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Weather

The first of three storm systems this week continues across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. It will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms and stall a front from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers will form along the front but will be isolated across the Plains. The next system will be moving through the West.

EPA Announces RFS Standards for 2026-27

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has finalized new renewable fuel standards that increase biofuel blending requirements and aim to strengthen domestic energy production, according to a federal announcement. The rule, part of the federal Renewable Fuel Standard program, sets new volume targets for 2026 and 2027 and is expected to boost demand for ethanol, biodiesel and other renewable fuels. Officials said the standards are designed to reduce reliance on foreign oil while supporting U.S. farmers and rural economies. “Today’s announcement is truly historic for our nation’s farmers and energy producers. These numbers represent the highest levels of biofuels ever required to be blended into our fuel supply,” said Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. The policy also includes measures intended to prioritize domestically produced biofuels over imports, reinforcing energy security goals. The Renewable Fuel Standard requires refiners to blend renewable fuels into the nation’s fuel supply or purchase credits to comply. Industry groups have closely watched the rule, which influences commodity markets, fuel prices and investment decisions across agriculture and energy sectors.

Farmers Expected to Shift Acres from Corn to Soybeans Amid Rising Costs

U.S. farmers are expected to plant fewer corn acres this spring and shift more land to soybeans as rising input costs continue to pressure farm budgets, analysts say. Higher fertilizer and diesel prices, driven in part by global geopolitical tensions, have made corn more expensive to produce than soybeans, which require less nitrogen. As a result, producers are adjusting planting decisions to manage financial risk, according to Reuters. The shift comes as farm income is projected to decline for a fourth consecutive year, according to economists. Lower commodity prices and elevated input costs have squeezed margins across much of the farm sector. Market analysts say the acreage changes could influence grain supplies later this year, potentially supporting corn prices if production falls. Planting decisions remain fluid, however, as farmers weigh weather conditions, input availability and market volatility ahead of the spring planting season.

Farm Bill Uncertainty Persists as Lawmakers Debate Key Ag Policies

Uncertainty surrounding the next farm bill continues as lawmakers remain divided on several key agricultural and nutrition policy issues. Members of Congress from both parties agree on the need to update farm programs, but disagreements over funding levels, nutrition assistance and regulatory provisions have slowed progress. Reuters reports key sticking points include the future of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, disaster aid funding and proposals to expand year-round sales of higher ethanol blends such as E15. Farm groups have urged Congress to act quickly, citing financial stress among producers and the need for policy certainty ahead of planting season. Without a new farm bill, many existing programs will continue under temporary extensions, leaving long-term policy questions unresolved. Lawmakers have indicated negotiations are ongoing, but no clear timeline has emerged for final passage.

Wildfires Threaten Grazing Land and Livestock Operations Across Plains

Wildfires burning across parts of the central and western United States are raising concerns for cattle producers and grazing operations as the 2026 fire season intensifies. Large fires in the Plains have already scorched significant acreage, damaging pastureland and reducing available forage for livestock. The Washington Post reports ranchers in affected areas are working to relocate cattle and secure feed supplies. Fire conditions have been fueled by dry weather, strong winds and low humidity, creating an elevated risk across key agricultural regions. Agriculture officials warn that prolonged fire activity could have lasting impacts on herd management and feed costs, particularly if grazing land recovery is slow. Experts say the early severity of fires may signal a challenging season ahead, with continued risks to both livestock operations and rural infrastructure.

Severe Storms Increase Risks for Farmers Heading into Planting Season

Severe weather across much of the central United States is raising concerns for farmers as spring planting season begins. Forecasters report a recent pattern of strong storms, including tornadoes and heavy rainfall, along with sharp temperature swings that could disrupt fieldwork and damage infrastructure. Wet conditions in some areas may delay planting, while high winds and storms pose risks to farm buildings and equipment. The New York Post reports livestock producers also face challenges from rapidly changing weather conditions. Timely planting is critical for crop yields, and prolonged delays could affect production potential for key commodities such as corn and soybeans. The volatile weather outlook adds another layer of uncertainty for producers already dealing with tight margins and fluctuating input costs. Meteorologists say conditions could remain active in the coming weeks as seasonal patterns shift.

SAF Leading Airline Industry to Net Zero Emissions

Sustainable aviation fuel is emerging as a key tool in the aviation industry’s effort to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, as companies look to reduce their environmental footprint without overhauling existing aircraft. Unlike conventional jet fuel, sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, is produced from renewable sources such as used cooking oil, agricultural waste and forestry residues. Business Airport International reports these fuels can cut lifecycle carbon emissions by as much as 80% compared with traditional petroleum-based fuels while working in current engines and infrastructure. The aviation sector has already made progress on efficiency, but industry leaders say SAF represents the most immediate path to deeper emissions reductions. Business aviation, while a small share of global emissions, has taken a leading role in adopting the fuel. Challenges remain, including limited supply and higher production costs. Still, policymakers and industry groups are pushing for expanded production, viewing SAF as critical to meeting long-term climate goals.

Monday Watch List

Markets

USDA will release their weekly grain export inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT Monday. Otherwise, there are no major reports scheduled. Traders will likely position ahead of Tuesday's USDA reports and watch for updates regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Weather

A system is moving along the U.S.-Canada border on Monday. It is producing scattered showers across northern areas throughout the day and will likely produce thunderstorms in the Midwest this evening. Some of those could become severe with large hail being the main threat. Dryness in the Plains is a concern for spreading wildfires as well.

FAPRI Releases 2026 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook Now Available

The University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute released its 2026 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook. The near-term outlook for farm finances shows stark differences between crop and livestock sectors. Net returns remain poor for most row crops, but the cattle sector, in contrast, is experiencing record prices and returns to cow-calf producers. Grain and oilseed prices are expected to rebound modestly in 2026, having fallen from their recent peaks. Corn, soybeans, and wheat prices remain below their average of the last decade. Corn prices are projected to average $4.31 for the 2026 crop, while soybean prices are projected at $10.39 a bushel for 2026-2027. Prices for cotton, rice, sorghum, and many other crops are expected to show modest increases, but margins remain poor. The beef cow herd continued declining, resulting in record cow-calf operator profitability. This profitability eventually causes the cycle to turn, and cattle prices are predicted to start declining in 2027. 

More Reaction to EPA’s E15 Summertime Waiver

U.S. agricultural groups continued to react to the Environmental Protection Agency’s Summertime E15 waiver announcement. “Nationwide access to E15 is a much-needed win for family farmers and consumers alike,” said National Farmers Union President Rob Larew. “It helps lower costs at the pump while creating markets for farmers.” National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower said, “This development will help our corn growers, who are doing their best to navigate tough times.” Senate Ag Committee Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) said every cent saved at the pump can make a real difference, adding that, “We must now act in Congress to pass my bipartisan legislation to permanently allow the sale of nationwide, year-round E15.” Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau, said biofuels play an important role in meeting America’s energy needs and are a win-win for farmers and drivers. “E15 gasoline saves consumers 10 to 30 cents per gallon at the pump,” Duvall said.

Court Decision Upholds Ban on Lab-Grown Meat

Earlier this week, a federal appeals court upheld Florida’s ban on lab-grown meat, which has been in place since 2024. The Center for the Environment and Welfare said the decision is another setback for those working to overturn Florida’s ban on lab-grown protein. “Lab-grown meat is an experimental product with many unknowns because there is a lack of long-term health studies,” said Will Coggin, research director at the Center. “Florida is joined by many other states that share concerns about petri (PEE-tree) dish protein, and it’s a sensible policy that keeps pace with consumer expectations.” Lab-grown meat is produced by extracting animal cells and growing them in large metal vats known as bioreactors. While the federal government approved the sale of lab-grown meat in 2023, there’s still no research on the long-term health effects of consuming the products. To date, seven states beyond Florida have enacted legislation banning the product. 

USGBC Releases the Corn Export Cargo Quality Report

USGBC Releases the Corn Export Cargo Quality ReportThe average aggregate quality of U.S. corn samples tested for the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council’s 2025-2026 Corn Export Cargo Quality Report was better than or equal to U.S. No. 2 on all grade factors. “The Council’s report, now in its 15th edition, is a testament to the organization’s dedication and commitment to connecting international end users of feed grains and their co-products to U.S. farmers,” said Mark Wilson, USGBC chair. Broken corn and foreign material registered at 2.4 percent after moving through export channels, the lowest in the report’s 15-year history. Protein content was measured at 8.5 percent dry basis, similar to last year’s crop, and starch concentration was observed at 72.1 percent, higher than in 2024-2025. The report is based on 430 yellow commodity corn samples collected from export shipments as they underwent the inspection and grading processes performed by licensed inspectors. 

Farm Futures Says Corn Acres May Surpass USDA Forecast

A Farm Progress survey led by Farm Futures Magazine indicated a few more corn acres than the USDA Outlook projected in February, but still fewer than in 2025. Based on the cumulative numbers from all states in the survey, corn planting intentions in 2026 are expected to drop about 2.4 percent from 2025, or about half the drop that USDA projected in February. “U.S. farmers are widely expected to slash corn plantings in 2026 as heavy supplies from last year’s record 17-billion-bushel harvest weigh on grain prices and pressure margins,” said Bruce Blythe, senior editor at Farm Futures. A 2.4 percent drop in corn acreage from 2025 would result in farmers planting about 96.4 million acres, over two million lower than the USDA’s February prediction. Soybean acres could be up a million from the USDA’s estimate, and possibly reach over 86 million acres. “Southern acres appear set to shift from unprofitable cotton and rice to more soybeans,” Blythe said.  

Weekly Ethanol Production Grows

Data from the Energy Information Administration and analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association showed ethanol production expanding 2.1 percent to 1.12 million barrels a day during the week ending March 20. That’s equivalent to almost 47 million gallons daily. Output was six percent higher than the same week last year and 7.8 percent above the three-year average for the week. Ethanol stocks swelled 2.9 percent to 27.2 million barrels, the largest weekly volume in a year. Stocks were 0.7 percent less than the same week last year but 3.2 percent higher than the three-year average. Inventories were built across all regions except the West Coast. The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, rose 2.2 percent to 8.92 million barrels a day. Demand was 3.3 percent higher than a year ago. Ethanol exports dropped 32 percent to an estimated 119,000 barrels a day, a ten-week low. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

While there are no major reports scheduled for Friday, markets will be tuned in to the White House Ag event, with President Trump scheduled to speak at 11:30 a.m. CDT. Later in the afternoon, CFTC will release the weekly Commitments of Traders report, updating positions as of Tuesday, March 24.

Weather

A sharp cold front continues to push southward through the country on Friday. Scattered showers are forming along it but will wane throughout the day and be very limited over driest areas of the Southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast. A burst of colder air follows behind it as well.

Trump Administration Approves Summer E15 Fuel Sales

The Renewable Fuels Association welcomed a decision by the Environmental Protection Agency to allow uninterrupted sales of lower-cost E15 this summer. At a time of rising gasoline prices, year-round sales of E15 will help American drivers save money at the pump, strengthen the rural economy, and boost energy independence. The RFA thanked EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and the White House for announcing waivers that will allow continued sales of E15 at almost 5,000 gas stations across the country. “With geopolitical conflict roiling energy markets worldwide, we applaud the President and Administrator Zeldin for acting quickly and decisively to combat potential fuel shortages and help keep a lid on gas prices this summer,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. In announcing the decision, EPA pointed out that the lower-cost, American-made E15 blend is legally approved for use in more than 95 percent of vehicles on the road today. 

Klobuchar Touts Improvements in the Domestic Supply Chain

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), the Ranking Member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, addressed the recent Agri-Pulse Ag and Food Policy Summit conference. She said one of the most important things on her mind is the price of fertilizer. “Last month, as farmers began preparations for the spring planting season, fertilizer components like urea spiked 25 percent,” she told attendees. “Ammonia, phosphate, sulfate, and potassium have also sharply eroded what little profit margin exists on the farms this year.” Klobuchar also said that, since the 1980s, the number of companies producing ammonia has declined substantially. “Today, four companies control more than three-quarters of the nitrogen fertilizer in the U.S., while potash and phosphate fertilizer markets are 100 percent controlled by these four companies,” she added. “The increased concentration in the fertilizer industry has put the farmers in a really hard situation, and the Iran war only makes that situation even worse.” 

Groups Call for Reasonable Guidelines for Aviation Tax Credits

A letter signed by over 20 agricultural and biofuel groups was sent to officials at the Agriculture, Treasury, and Energy Departments, and the White House, asking for reasonable guidelines to allow farmers to benefit from the 45Z tax credit. The credit is intended to facilitate the sale of ethanol and other biofuels in the aviation sector. “Farmers are facing structural economic issues where projected costs exceed expected revenues,” the letter said. “Biofuels are a critical market for U.S. farmers, and tax incentives like the 45Z tax credit are essential policy instruments to secure long-term demand for liquid fuels made from American-grown feedstock.” The letter also said stable, long-term market incentives will help farmers outpace their global competitors, and allow them to make capital, input, and management decisions that shape the next several growing seasons. “Clear 45Z guidance is critical for farmers and their lenders to plan ahead with confidence,” the groups said. 

Spring Arrives on the Upper Mississippi River

Army Corps of Engineers staff locked the Motor Vessel Crockett through Lock and Dam 2 in Hastings, Minnesota, this week, with two additional barges en route to St. Paul, Minnesota. She was immediately followed by four additional tows. The lockages marked the unofficial start to the navigation season because the lock and dam is the last one before reaching St. Paul. The average first tow arrives around the third week in March. The earliest date for a tow to reach St. Paul occurred on March 4 in 1983, 1984, and 2000. Keeping the Mississippi River navigation system open is critical for the nation’s economy. A 15-barge tow is the equivalent of more than 1,050 semi-trailers or 200 rail cars. One barge can carry more than 50,000 bushels of wheat, enough to make 2.1 million loaves of bread. Shipping commodities on the river saves money and ultimately helps reduce grocery store costs. 

Food and Agriculture Generate 20 Percent of All U.S. Economic Activity

Every year, the Feeding the Economy report provides a comprehensive look at the full economic footprint of U.S. food and agriculture. Among the report’s biggest takeaways is that food and agriculture support $10.4 trillion in total U.S. economic output, representing about 20 percent of all economic activity. The sector supports almost 29 million jobs, or roughly 30 percent of total U.S. employment, even though on-farm jobs account for less than two percent. Food and agriculture generate over $1.3 trillion in tax revenue, reinforcing their role as a foundation of local, state, and federal economies. Maintaining domestic food and agriculture production helps anchor jobs, income, and economic activity within the United States. The report highlights a broad reality: agriculture is not just one sector of the overall economy, but it is a foundational driver of economic activity, supporting millions of jobs, trillions in output, and significant tax revenue across every state. 

Compeer Awards Over 100 Scholarships to Future Ag Students

Compeer Financial selected 105 high school seniors out of 447 eligible applicants to receive a scholarship worth $2,000 toward the pursuit of a degree related to agriculture. This year’s recipients excel academically with an average GPA of 3.9. In addition, 74 percent are involved in FFA, while 20 percent are members of 4-H. Areas of study receiving the most interest among the scholarship winners include ag, plant, animal, and veterinary sciences; agricultural business; and ag education. “Compeer is committed to sustaining agriculture and our rural communities, and the next generation is integral to supporting the expanding industries that contribute to a dynamic, collaborative, and thriving rural environment,” said Karen Schieler, manager of Compeer Giving within Compeer Financial. “Compeer Giving is proud to help these hard-working students as they pursue a degree in agriculture or a related field and enable them to explore the vast career opportunities across ag-related industries.” 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA will lead off Thursday with their weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Later in the afternoon, USDA will release the quarterly Hogs and Pigs inventory report at 2 p.m. CDT. Otherwise, the market will of course be in tune to developments regarding the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Weather

A strong front is diving south through the northern half of the country on Thursday. Scattered showers are already occurring with it, but it will be more potent Thursday afternoon and evening across the Midwest as strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from Missouri to Ohio.

Ag Chair says Senate to Start Farm Bill Work in Weeks

Senate Ag Chair John Boozman (BOZE-man) said he plans to take up a five-year farm bill within weeks, regardless of any possible delays a similar bill may face in the House. E & E News quoted the Chair as saying “weeks, not months,” although he didn’t offer any specifics. Bozeman did tell U.S. agriculture groups not to think delays were inaction, as he noted lawmakers and congressional leadership are discussing how to advance the bill. The most recent action on the farm bill came in the House, when Ag Committee members voted 34-17 to advance a new farm bill. However, Farm Aid reported that the bill itself remains controversial, and several sticking points may make it difficult to advance out of the full House. One particularly contentious part of the bill is protection for pesticide companies from legal claims about the product’s health impacts. The inclusion threatens Republican support from the Make America Healthy Again movement.

USDA Promotes New Voluntary “Product of the USA” Label

On National Agriculture Day, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the launch of a national public awareness campaign to inform meat, poultry, and egg producers about the “Product of the USA” voluntary labeling standard that went into effect on January 1, 2026. The campaign is also designed to increase consumer understanding of what the label means. “American consumers want to support America by buying American, and this label will strengthen our food supply chain through transparency, fairness, and trust,” said Rollins. “This new standard policy ensures producers who invest in a fully American supply chain can compete fairly, and it gives consumers the confidence they deserve about the food they bring home.” Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy, Jr., said the new label puts America’s producers first, gives families clear, honest information, and empowers them to choose food raised right here at home. 

Farmers Share Big Concerns About Greenhouse Gas Data Collection

U.S. dairy farmers across the country are increasingly being asked to provide detailed operational data to cooperatives, proprietary processors, and supply-chain partners for sustainability and Scope 3 GHG reporting. These requests can include sensitive data like herd records, feed and manure data, cropping practices, energy use, fuel consumption, and other aspects of farm business management. The requests are occurring even though federal agencies like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the EPA under the Biden and Trump administrations stepped back from Scope 3 requirements, citing concerns that they are outside a company’s direct control, controversial, and difficult to regulate and verify. Farmers contacting the American Dairy Coalition say programs tied to the dairy checkoff program’s Innovation Center of U.S. Dairy and Net Zero Initiative through the FARM ES Program appear to be expanding beyond their original voluntary intent. 

Lawmakers Seek Fertilizer Cost Transparency

A bipartisan group of Senators introduced a bill that would require mandatory price reporting of fertilizer. Bloomberg said the move is a bid for more market information after the war in Iran prompted the biggest rise in crop nutrient costs in years. The bill, called the Fertilizer Transparency Act,” would offer market participants of all sizes with comparable levels of market information on fertilizer components. “At a time when rising fertilizer costs and low commodity prices are continuing to erode farmers’ profitability, we should be increasing price transparency for farmers in the current market and increasing domestic fertilizer production and storage here at home,” said Senator Amy Klobuchar, the Ranking Member of the Senate Ag Committee. Josh Linville of StoneX said Middle East Urea has jumped by the highest amount since the Strait of Hormuz closed three weeks ago, climbing $285, a 60 percent hike compared to the pre-war prices. 

Farmers Get Less Than Six Cents of Every Dollar Spent on Food

Data from the U.S. Economic Research Service’s Food Dollar Series provides a clear picture of how consumer food spending is distributed across the U.S. food supply chain. The latest estimates show that crop producers capture about 2.5 cents of every food dollar, down from 2.9 cents in 2023. Livestock producers receive about 3.3 cents, up from three cents a year earlier. Combined, U.S. farmers and ranchers account for about 5.8 cents of the total value added in the food system, down from 5.9 cents in 2023. In 2024, farmers received 11.8 cents of every dollar spent on domestically produced food, down from 12.1 cents in 2023, a 2.5 percent decrease year over year. The remaining 88.2 cents of the food dollar went toward the marketing bill, which includes costs associated with food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retailing, and food service. This shift illustrates how an increasing share of food spending is driven by services and supply chain activities rather than farming.

USDA Releases Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Reports

USDA’s 2026 projection for beef production was lowered by 110 million pounds from last month to 25.81 billion pounds. A sharp decline in fed cattle slaughter expected in the first quarter was partially offset by a slight increase in second quarter slaughter and heavier carcass weights. In 2026, the dairy cow herd is projected to average 9.57 million head, an increase of 30,000 head, and milk production is forecast to be higher at 234.7 billion pounds, 0.2 billion pounds higher than last month’s forecast. Quarterly commercial pork production forecasts for 2026 are unchanged, leaving the annual production forecast unchanged at 28.3 billion pounds, 2.5 percent higher than last year. In poultry, projected broiler production was adjusted higher in the first half of 2026, reflecting recent hatchery data, while 2026 broiler export projections were unchanged. Projected broiler prices were adjusted lower in the second quarter on recent price trends.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

On Wednesday, the EIA will release the weekly Petroleum Status report at 9:30 a.m. CDT, which will include last week's ethanol production. Otherwise, it looks to be another quiet day for reports, but markets will remain sensitive to war-related headlines as has been the case for the past month.

Weather

A system is moving along the Canadian border on Wednesday, producing some areas of showers across the far north. Warmer air continues to spread eastward south of the system with some extremely warm temperatures again in the Southern Plains.

Groups Urge Action on Phosphate Duties

Over 50 state grower groups and eight national ag groups filed a letter with the Department of Commerce on Friday asking it to revoke countervailing duties on imports of phosphate fertilizer as the sunset review begins. The letter was signed by groups like the National Corn Growers Association, National Association of Wheat Growers, USA Rice, and several others, and said that if the duties continue, they will further worsen the dire economic conditions faced by American farmers. “Maintaining the phosphate fertilizer duties will allow a small set of powerful corporations to continue to limit supply options for farmers,” the letter said. “This has already prevented farmers from accessing the tools that meet their crop production needs and resulted in lower yields and negative economic impacts.” In 2020, the Commerce Department, acting on a petition filed by The Mosaic Company, imposed duties on phosphate fertilizers imported from Morocco and Russia. 

Trade Associations Ask for Finalized RFS

The March 2026 Cattle on Feed Report showed February placements of 1.61 million head, which was a four percent increase over 2025, exceeding analyst expectations before the report. The March 1 total on-feed inventory was 11.55 million head, 0.3 percent below last year, while February marketings fell seven percent compared to 2025. Beef Magazine said the report was considered slightly bearish due to the higher-than-expected placements, which were a four percent increase from a light placement year in 2025. Some of the key feeding states saw high placements, including Iowa, up 11 percent, Kansas was also 11 percent higher, and Texas placements rose by eight percent. February fed cattle marketings totaled 1.52 million head, seven percent below 2025. Marketings were the second lowest for February since the series began in 1996. Other disappearances totaled 50,000 head during February, 17 percent below 2025. 

Argentina Grain Exports Jump

Argentina is shipping grains to overseas markets at a strong pace this season. Reuters said record sunflower exports and booming corn sales helped to move one of the country’s biggest harvests in years. The Rosario Grains Exchange said the shipping is moving at a good pace, even though the conflict in the Middle East is adding volatility to global prices and raising freight costs. Argentina is benefiting from record corn and wheat production and the best sunflower harvest of the 21st century. Sunflower oil exports posted their strongest start to the marketing year since 2005, and shipments of raw sunflower seeds hit unprecedented levels in the first quarter. Corn is also off to a quick start as the new corn export season is expected to break records and top four million metric tons. Argentina’s edge in the world market could weaken later this year when Brazil’s second-season corn crop begins reaching global buyers. 

Applications Open for Sheep Heritage Foundation Scholarship

Applications are open for the American Sheep Industry Association’s annual Sheep Heritage Foundation Scholarship. The deadline to apply is May 31, and the recipient will be announced in July. The $3,000 scholarship will be awarded to one graduate-level Master’s or Doctoral student who is attending school in the United States. The scholarship was developed to drive advancement in the American sheep industry through either wool or lamb research. Applicants must be graduate students involved in sheep and/or wool research in areas like animal science, agricultural economics, or veterinary medicine, with proof of graduate school acceptance. Applicants must also be U.S. citizens, present two letters of reference, and complete the application. Again, the deadline to apply is May 31, 2026. For more information or to apply, go to sheepusa.org. 

USDA Launches Trade Mission to Vietnam

The USDA launched a Trade Reciprocity for U.S. Manufacturers and Productions Mission to Vietnam this week to open new markets, strengthen export opportunities, and secure fair and reciprocal trade for American farmers, ranchers, and producers. “American farmers, ranchers, and producers thrive when they have strong, reliable markets for their high-quality products,” said USDA Under Secretary Luke Lindberg, who’s leading the mission. “By strengthening our trade relationship with Vietnam, we’re opening doors for U.S. agriculture, ensuring they have a fair chance to compete and succeed.” In 2025 alone, agriculture, fishery, and forest product exports surged by 45 percent to a record $5.6 billion, making Vietnam the eighth-largest market for the U.S. The mission’s goal is to expand on the momentum by expanding market access, connecting suppliers with new buyers, and advancing negotiations for America’s farmers and ranchers. USDA will return to Vietnam later this year for a broader agribusiness trade mission to continue expanding opportunities. 

Celebrating Aerial Applicators on National Ag Day

As the nation celebrates National Ag Day on Tuesday, the National Agricultural Aviation Association honors the men and women whose work in aerial application supports global food production and modern agriculture. National Ag Day highlights the vital contributions of farmers, ranchers, aerial applicators, and the broader agricultural community. For more than a century, aerial applicators have helped farmers deliver a safe, affordable, and abundant supply of food, fiber, and bioenergy, while also protecting forests and controlling the pests that threaten human and animal health. Each year, American farmers rely on aerial application to treat approximately 127 million acres, or nearly 28 percent of U.S. cropland, applying fertilizers, seeds, and crop protection treatments with precision and efficiency. “Aerial application plays a vital role in modern agriculture by allowing crops to be protected quickly, precisely, and with minimal impact to the soil,” said Andrew Moore, NAAA CEO. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There are no major agricultural or macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. The trade will likely remain sensitive to updates regarding the war in the Middle East after a volatile start to the week on Monday.

Weather

It is fairly calm across most of the U.S. with a couple of systems moving through Canada for Tuesday. Very little precipitation is expected. Instead, temperatures will be rising again east of the Rockies.

USDA Support Programs Remain Key as Farm Income Pressures Persist

Federal farm support programs are playing an increasingly central role as U.S. producers navigate a period of economic uncertainty marked by high costs and weak commodity prices. Programs administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including income support and disaster assistance initiatives, have provided a financial backstop for many farmers facing tight margins. Recent enrollment in aid programs has remained strong, reflecting ongoing stress in the agricultural sector. Industry groups say current conditions, including elevated fertilizer and fuel costs, have made federal assistance essential for maintaining operations. Some policymakers, however, are debating whether existing programs provide sufficient coverage, particularly as Congress works to finalize a new farm bill. Analysts say continued reliance on federal support underscores broader structural challenges in agriculture, including price volatility and rising production expenses.

U.S. Soybean Shipments to China Rise as Summit Delay Clouds Trade Outlook

A surge of U.S. soybean shipments to China is providing a boost to export demand, even as uncertainty grows over the future of trade talks between the two countries. Recent export activity shows increased volumes of U.S. soybeans moving to China, the world’s largest buyer, as previously arranged purchases are fulfilled. Bloomberg reports the shipments come amid shifting global competition, particularly from Brazil, and reflect continued reliance on the Chinese market for U.S. growers. However, market sentiment has been tempered by delays surrounding a potential summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders, raising questions about future trade policy and demand stability. Analysts say uncertainty over negotiations could weigh on soybean prices and influence farmer marketing decisions. China remains the top destination for U.S. soy exports, making trade relations a key factor for the farm economy. Any disruption or delay in talks could have ripple effects across commodity markets.

Bipartisan Senators Introduce Bill Targeting Fertilizer Costs and Transparency

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators has introduced legislation aimed at increasing transparency in fertilizer markets and potentially lowering costs for farmers facing high input expenses. Senators Tammy Baldwin, Chuck Grassley, and Joni Ernst said the proposal would require the U.S. Department of Agriculture to study competition, pricing trends and supply factors in the fertilizer industry. The agency would be directed to publish a public report within one year examining issues such as market concentration, import reliance and trade policies. Lawmakers said fertilizer remains one of the largest expenses for U.S. producers, with prices contributing significantly to overall production costs. Farm groups have raised concerns about limited market transparency and the impact of consolidation on pricing. Supporters say the bill could provide farmers with better insight into price drivers, while helping policymakers evaluate potential reforms to improve competition and affordability.

Lawmakers Highlight Support for Farmers at Senate Agriculture Hearing

Lawmakers from both parties voiced support for U.S. farmers during a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing focused on expanding domestic agricultural production, as producers face rising costs and financial pressure. At the hearing, titled “Increasing Domestic Production of U.S.-Grown Agricultural Products,” members heard testimony from agricultural trade group leaders on challenges facing the farm sector. Republicans emphasized expanding domestic and export markets, reducing regulatory burdens and advancing policies such as biofuels and the Buy American Cotton Act to improve profitability. Democrats focused on strengthening nutrition and specialty crop programs, making year-round E15 fuel sales permanent, addressing farm labor shortages and ensuring equitable distribution of federal aid. Lawmakers from both parties also raised concerns about tariffs, global conflicts and consolidation in agriculture, as well as the need for labor reform and increased research investment. The hearing underscored broad agreement that federal policy will play a key role in supporting long-term resilience in U.S. agriculture.

Nebraska Wildfires Threaten to Delay U.S. Cattle Herd Rebuilding

Massive wildfires in Nebraska are threatening to slow efforts to rebuild the U.S. cattle herd, as key grazing land in one of the nation’s top beef-producing states has been destroyed. Fires fueled by high winds have burned roughly 775,000 acres of pasture, removing a critical feed source for tens of thousands of cattle, according to state officials. The loss of grassland is expected to delay herd expansion plans, even as producers have been encouraged by historically strong cattle prices. Industry leaders say the fires compound ongoing challenges, including drought and high production costs, which have already pushed U.S. cattle inventories to multi-decade lows. Ranchers may be forced to move cattle, rely on more expensive feed, or reduce herd sizes in the short term. Analysts note that while strong beef demand has supported prices, the destruction of pastureland could further tighten supplies and prolong the timeline for herd recovery.

USDA Continues Rural Investment Efforts with Community Project Funding

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is continuing to invest in rural infrastructure projects, announcing new funding for community facilities as part of broader efforts to support rural economies. Recent projects include investments in public services such as schools, emergency response facilities and community centers. USDA officials say the funding is aimed at improving quality of life and sustaining economic activity in rural areas tied closely to agriculture. Local leaders say such projects can help stabilize rural populations and support workforce development, particularly in regions where agriculture remains a primary economic driver. The funding is part of USDA’s long-standing rural development mission, which includes loans and grants for infrastructure and community services. Officials say continued investment will be critical as rural communities face economic pressures linked to volatility in the farm sector.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT. Monday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Chicken and Eggs report at 2 p.m. CDT. There are no other reports scheduled, but traders will continue to watch for updates on the continuing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy markets.

Weather

A front moved through over the weekend, bringing through some showers for the Ohio Valley and a round of cooler air. That continues on Monday, but warm temperatures in the West will spread back through the country as we go on more of a rollercoaster ride throughout the week.

U.S. Seeking Fertilizer From Other Sources

The Trump administration is turning to other sources of fertilizer due to the ongoing shipping challenges caused by the Iran war. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said the administration is looking to Venezuela and possibly Morocco. “We’ve established licenses for Venezuela to produce more fertilizer, calling it an insurance policy against disruption,” Hassett told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” program. “I’m not saying we can eliminate what disruption there is so far, but we can minimize it.” Reuters also said fertilizer supplies have shrunk as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran cut off critical nitrogen fertilizer supplies from the Gulf to the world’s farmers, sending prices spiking by more than a third in recent weeks. Bloomberg said the U.S. currently has duties in place on Moroccan phosphate, and the duties are now under review. “Pleas from U.S. farm groups to remove those fees that ramped up after the war began in Iran,” Bloomberg reported.

U.S. Shipping Law Waived as Gas Prices Soar

President Donald Trump issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, which was confirmed by the White House on Wednesday. Axios (AXE-ee-ohs) said the White House formally eliminated the requirements that only American ships can transport cargo between domestic ports. Officials are looking to ease access to fuel and supplies while the Strait of Hormuz (hor-MOOZ) remains bottled up by war in Iran. The White House is attempting to pull multiple levers as the Iran war pushes gasoline prices higher and restricts access to goods that farmers and other industries need  to function. Market analysts say the move may only have up to a modest effect on most gasoline prices in the U.S., which now average approximately $3.84 per gallon according to AAA, up from roughly $3 before the conflict began. Oil prices rose higher on Wednesday as signs showed the war escalating further, with global benchmark Brent Crude was up over five dollars to about $109 per barrel.

Dairy Checkoff Launches Online Grant Database for Farmers

The dairy checkoff’s new online tool is designed to help dairy farmers and their advisors more easily identify grants and funding opportunities for conservation and on-farm improvements. The Funding Opportunities Database, available through the Dairy Conservation Navigator, organizes federal, state, and private funding programs into a single searchable platform tailored to dairy operations. For many farmers, identifying funding programs can be one of the most challenging steps in pursuing new projects. Agricultural grants are spread across multiple federal agencies, state initiatives, and private organizations, each of which has different deadlines, priorities, and application processes. “Dairy farming creates many opportunities for improvement but also makes identifying the right funding sources more complicated,” said Bridgett Hilshey, senior director of environmental stewardship at Dairy Management, Inc. Go to dairyconservation.org/grants. 

NCGA Press Call: “Implications of Middle East Conflict”

During a press conference this week, the National Corn Growers Association called on Congress to pass legislation that will allow for the year-round sale of E15. Farmers and the ethanol industry are ready to deliver a solution to high prices at the pump, impacting all American drivers, and support farmers’ profitability. It’s a win-win and an easy solution for Congress to deliver. The group also called on U.S. fertilizer companies to ask the Trump administration to remove duties on phosphate imports from Morocco to help reduce fertilizer costs for farmers, a move that some reports say is already under consideration by officials. “With corn prices low and input costs high, Iowa’s corn growers are facing a fourth year of negative profitability, a situation made even more uncertain by the volatility in the Strait of Hormuz (hor-MOOZ) affecting global trade,” said Mark Mueller, the president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association. 

NFU Urges Swift Finalization of Poultry Tournament Rule

The National Farmers Union is unhappy that the Poultry Grower Payment Systems and Capital Improvement Systems rule proposed by the USDA’s Ag Marketing Service has been postponed. NFU President Rob Larew is disappointed that USDA is delaying the implementation of its rule from July 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027. “The rule is designed to increase fairness in poultry contracting and payment systems,” said Larew. “Growers have long raised concerns about the unfairness of tournament pricing and the amount and quality of information provided to them by poultry companies.” He also said the rule establishes guardrails on the tournament system, giving producers more certainty and transparency so they can operate their farm businesses successfully. Broiler chicken growers operate under a tournament-style system, where they must compete against their neighbors for the best price. NFU said growers cannot reasonably avoid certain practices that cause them harm. 

Celebrating National Biodiesel Day

Earlier this week, March 18th was National Biodiesel Day. Biodiesel has been an early driver of clean fuel growth in America and a consistent foundation for farm and food security throughout the 21st century. Clean Fuels Alliance America celebrated the industry’s resiliency and looked ahead to new opportunities for growth. “Biodiesel helped chart the course for today’s clean fuels market in heavy-duty transportation and opened the doors to applications in rail, marine, Bioheat fuel, and aviation,” said Clean Fuels CEO Donnell Rehagen (REE-Hagen). National Biodiesel Day commemorates the birthday of Rudolf Diesel, who invented the diesel engine and predicted the importance of biodiesel more than a century ago. “The use of vegetable oils for engine fuels may seem insignificant today, but such oils may become, in the course of time, as important as petroleum and the coal tar products of the present time,” he said during a speech in 1912.