Shutdown Halts Some Payments and Loans to Farmers

The U.S. federal government shutdown will stop some payments to farmers and also delay access to federal farm loans. Reuters said it’s one more blow for producers already struggling with low crop prices, record-high debts, and a trade war at the height of the fall harvest. Republican and Democratic lawmakers couldn’t agree on a plan to fund the federal government, and this will last until one party gets enough votes for its funding plan. “Even short interruptions in payments could deepen farmers’ economic turmoil,” said Chad Hart, an agricultural economist with Iowa State University. “After all, it costs money to run those combines at harvest.”  While administration of nutrition programs and food inspections will continue, much of USDA’s other work will cease. That includes processing farm loans and making payments to farmers, including billions in disaster aid. It will also not process annual commodity and land conservation payments typically issued by October. 

Senators Want Final Import RIN Reduction Rule in Place

Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa led over 45 Senate and House colleagues in urging the Environmental Protection Agency to finalize a rule on imported Renewable Identification, or RIN, Numbers. They also want the agency to hold firm on the proposed biomass-based diesel volumes. In a letter to EPA, lawmakers said such measures would ensure the Renewable Fuel Standard continues to strengthen American energy security and support America’s farmers and renewable fuel producers. “While many farmers are struggling to break even, all federal biofuels policies should prioritize domestic agriculture and biofuel production, not foreign fuels made from foreign feedstocks,” the letter said. “Also, while farmers face the uncertainty of foreign market demand, the Import RIN reduction would provide support for the farm economy, so farmers could sell more products domestically.” Earlier this year, the EPA proposed record biomass-based diesel volumes, including a 50 percent reduction in RINS for imported renewable fuels. 

Support Coming for U.S. Soybean Farmers

The federal government will support America’s soybean farmers as China refuses to buy U.S. soybeans and will make an announcement on Tuesday. That announcement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “You’re going to see substantial support for the farmers, and we’re also going to be working with the Farm Credit Bureau to make sure that farmers have what they need for next year’s planning,” Bessent said. “It’s unfortunate that Chinese leadership has decided to use the American farmers, soybean farmers in particular, as a hostage or pawn in the trade negotiations.” Agriculture Dot Com says Chinese importers haven’t bought any soybeans from America’s harvest during the trade war between Washington and Beijing, costing U.S. farmers billions in lost sales. America’s farmers overwhelmingly voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. The president said soybeans will be a major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks. 

California Governor Signs E15 Bill

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded California Governor Gavin Newsome for signing Assembly Bill 30 into law. AB30, which passed unanimously out of both the Assembly and the Senate, immediately legalizes lower-cost E15 fuel in the Golden State. Prior to the signing, California was the only remaining state in the nation where E15 sales weren’t allowed. “California is on the road to lower gas prices and a cleaner future for families across the state,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “Many other states have already seen the benefits of E15, including healthier air, better engine performance, and costs savings at the pump.” California drivers are about to experience those same benefits for themselves, and RFA thanked Governor Newsom for voicing his support for E15 through the legislative process. Recent studies have shown that E15 could save California drivers $2.7 billion annually, or about $200 per household, while significantly cutting tailpipe pollutants.

Ethanol Production Falls

The Energy Information Administration said U.S. ethanol output dropped during the week ending on September 26. Production fell to an average of 995,000 barrels per day from 1.024 million a week earlier. Agency data also said that’s down from the 1.015 million produced during the same week in 2024. In the Midwest, output averaged 940,000 barrels a day, down from 964,000 during the previous week and 961,000 at the same point a year ago. East Coast output was down by 3,000 barrels to an average of 10,000 barrels a day, and Rocky Mountain production declined by 2,000 barrels a day to 11,000 per day. Gulf Coast production was unchanged from the previous week, while the West Coast was the sole gainer, rising 1,000 barrels a day to an average of 10,000 barrels a day. Ethanol inventories through the week totaled 22.8 million barrels, down from 23.5 million during the prior week. 

New President Takes Over NCGA

Jed Bower, a fifth-generation corn and soybean farmer from Ohio, began his term this week as president of the National Corn Growers Association, saying the challenging rural economy will be his top priority in the year ahead. “We need new markets to help alleviate the economic crisis that’s threatening the survival of countless family farms across the country,” Bower said. “That’s why we will continue to encourage Congress to act immediately to pass legislation that expands consumer access to higher blends of ethanol year-round and urge the Trump administration to move quickly to develop new foreign markets.” Grower leaders have ramped up pressure on Congress to pass the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025, which would eliminate a dated clause in the Clean Air Act that prevents the sale of E15 during the summer months. Growers argue this change would provide more predictability and boost demand for corn.

Friday Watch List

Markets

As the government shutdown enters its third day, again major agency reports are delayed/canceled including the weekly Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC. There are a few Federal Reserve governor speeches scheduled throughout the day which investors may turn to for guidance in lieu of September employment data which had been scheduled for release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Weather

A front has moved into the Northern Plains and sits there on Friday. A storm system in the West will produce showers up that way throughout the day Friday. Some very spotty showers will be possible in other parts of the country, but it will continue to be mostly very warm and dry heading into the weekend.

Over 40,000 USDA Employees Furloughed By Shutdown

The White House Office of Management and Budget requires the USDA to maintain a plan for agency operations in the absence of appropriations. The plan shows a total of 85,907 USDA employees on board before the government shutdown took place on Wednesday morning at 12 am. According to the plan, a total of 42,256 agency employees were placed on furlough. The plan shows that the work getting paused during a shutdown includes most of the Risk Management Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, Food and Nutrition Service, and other segments of the agency. The shutdown particularly affects employees who work face-to-face with farmers. More than 6,000 of the 9,000-plus Farm Service Agency employees are going on furlough. By comparison, just 533 of the 7,600-plus people working at the Food Safety and Inspection Service, which regulates meat and poultry processing, are to be furloughed. Pesticide registration work at the EPA will continue.

Global Productivity Not Progressing Fast Enough

The Virginia Tech College of Agriculture and Life Sciences released its annual Global Agricultural Productivity Report this week. Among the key findings, global agricultural productivity growth, which is averaging 0.76 percent annually, is only about one-third of the target rate of two percent per year needed to sustainably and profitably meet the demands of the world’s agri-food systems. Asia has emerged as a global productivity leader, especially in China, India, and Vietnam. The growth is driven by R&D investment and technology adoption. In contrast, much of Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America remains reliant on land expansion and input intensification, which can generate short-term output gains but can also erode ecosystems and stall sustainable growth. While the U.S. averaged -0.05 percent annual growth during the past decade, China surged ahead at 1.9 percent, backed by twice the R&D funding and threatening the U.S. edge in global agriculture. 

Rollins: Farm Economy Not in a Good Place

The U.S. agriculture industry continues to lose sales from trade severances with China and other partner nations, prompting Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins to say the farming economy is “not in a good place.” During an appearance on the Fox Business Channel, she said the administration is working around the clock. Rollins also said a “Golden Age” was around the corner for farmers, and they’d have an announcement on farmer support likely next week. Not everyone agrees with the Golden Age comment. The Hill said Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley slammed the administration’s decision to support the Argentine government financially while China purchases an increasing number of soybeans from the South American nation. In a post on X, the Senator said farmers are still “very upset” about Argentina selling soybeans to China right after the USA bailout. With no sales to China, Grassley said farmers need a trade deal with China “Now.”

Democrats Want Argentina Bailout Halted

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), the Ranking Member of the Senate Ag Committee, led 13 colleagues in calling on President Trump to halt his plan to send a $20 billion bailout to Argentina. The Argentinian government just suspended its soybean export taxes, undercutting American farmers in the international market. “Despite that, you are still reportedly moving forward with the bailout for the country,” the Senators said in a letter to the White House. “American soybean farmers, already hurting from your sweeping tariffs, deserve better.” The senators said it’s unclear why the White House would use taxpayer dollars to bolster the re-election campaign of a foreign president while the country takes steps to undermine U.S. farmers. As the American Soybean Association puts it, “U.S. soybean prices are falling, the harvest is underway, and farmers read headlines about not securing a trade agreement with China, but that the government is extending billions to Argentina.” 

Motion to Dismiss Denied in Ear Tag Case

The U.S. District Court for the Fourth District of South Dakota denied much of the USDA’s motion to dismiss the New Civil Liberties Alliance’s R-CALF, et al. v. USDA Lawsuit. The NCLA, representing farmers, ranchers, and livestock producers, challenged the USDA and its Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service’s unlawful 2024 rule requiring electronically readable (EID) eartags for certain cattle and bison transported across state lines, rather than the long-used visual tags. USDA claimed that NCLA’s clients - cattle producers - did not have standing to bring the lawsuit, but the District Court rejected USDA’s arguments. NCLA is determined to defeat the rule on the merits and finally end this costly and unnecessary mandate, which is disproportionately borne by smaller and independent cattle producers.  Kara Rollins, Litigation Counsel for NCLA, said, “Since this rule came into effect almost a year ago, America’s farmers and ranchers have been forced to comply with an unnecessary mandate.” 

Celebrating Leadership and Agriculture at the National FFA Convention

Tens of thousands of FFA members, advisors, alumni, and supporters from across the country will gather in Indianapolis for the 98th National FFA Convention and Expo. This celebration of agricultural education and leadership takes place from October 29-November 1. “This year’s convention is more than just an event; it’s a celebration of our members’ dedication and a launchpad for the next generation of leaders,” said Christine White, chief program officer for the National FFA Organization. “It’s a time where we honor the hard work of today and ignite the spark of inspiration for tomorrow, empowering a community that will shape the future of agriculture and innovation for years to come.” Last year, over 71,000 people attended the event, which is the largest annual gathering of FFA members. Attendees will participate in award ceremonies, explore careers, do hands-on service projects, and more. FFA members will participate in a variety of competitions. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Due to the ongoing government shutdown, scheduled Thursday USDA and other government agency reports are postponed until further notice. As displayed on Wednesday, the market will continue to be highly sensitive to headlines and comments regarding a potential soybean related trade deal with China. Traders will also be keeping their ears open for yield updates as U.S. harvest rolls forward.

Weather

A few spotty showers will be possible in the Plains and Pacific Northwest on Thursday, but drier conditions are likely for the vast majority of the country again. Temperatures again will be on the verge of breaking some records across the north.

USDA Readying for Possible Government Shutdown

In the event of a possible government shutdown on Wednesday, the USDA says it’s taken steps to be ready. A shutdown could happen when the fiscal year ends on Tuesday night, unless Congress passes another continuing resolution. Back in the 2018 federal shutdown, Food Safety and Inspection Service meat inspection and laboratory testing personnel continued to work. USDA says it is prepared for all possible contingencies covering operations, including critical services and support programs. Two people with direct knowledge of the agency’s plans told Politico that USDA employees may face more layoffs. The department submitted its tentative shutdown contingency plan to the Office of Management and Budget, and it does include a reduction-in-force provision. No further details were provided on which employees could be cut, but the two people said the rest of the proposal largely mirrors USDA’s typical shutdown contingency plan, last updated during the Biden administration.

Mexico’s Meat Sector Unhappy with New Rules

Mexico’s government instituted new regulations on livestock movement because of the New World screwworm infestation in the country. Restrictions were put in place as tensions with the United States continue to heat up. Mexico’s meat chamber AMEG (Mexican Cattle Feeders Association) said restricting the movement of livestock from the south to the northern part of the country “threatens the economic viability of the sector that generated $192 billion in 2024.” Reuters said a document dated September 19 from Mexico’s ag ministry said the anti-parasite drug Ivermectin must be given 72 hours in advance of the movement of cattle under the supervision of staff from the International Regional Organization for Animal and Plant Health. “Recent measures jeopardize the supply chain of the meat production sector,” said AMEG, without specifying which measures they were referring to in the statement. AMEG said the only proven method to eradicate the screwworm was the release of sterile flies.

Wheat Export Inspections Decline Week to Week

USDA data showed inspections of wheat for overseas delivery declined week to week, while corn and soybean assessments increased. Wheat inspections in the seven days ending on September 25 totaled 738,600 metric tons, down from almost 940,000 tons the previous week. The agency said that’s still well above the 552,000 tons examined in the same week last year. Corn assessments were reported at 1.53 million metric tons versus 1.39 million during the previous week and 1.15 million at the same point in 2024. Soybean inspections totaled 594,000 metric tons, up from 566,000 tons a week earlier, but down from the 684,000 metric tons during the same week last year. Since June 1, the government has inspected 9.54 million metric tons of wheat for export, up from the 8.28 million tons assessed during the same timeframe last year. Corn and soybean inspections are also higher than last year.

USDA Hosting Agribusiness Trade Mission to Taiwan

Luke Lindberg, USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, arrived in Taiwan to lead an agribusiness trade mission to expand market access and boost U.S. agricultural exports. The delegation includes 39 agribusinesses and trade organizations and representatives from three state agriculture departments. “On a per capita basis, Taiwan already punches above its weight in purchasing high-quality American agriculture, but we will showcase more of our amazing brands and food products,” said Lindberg. The trade mission comes on the heels of an announcement by Taiwan officials who intend to increase purchases of several categories of U.S. agricultural products by over 30 percent during the next four years. The U.S. has a $3.1 billion trade surplus with Taiwan after shipping a total of $3.8 billion in 2024. Trade opportunities include soybeans, corn, wheat, dairy, beef, fresh fruits, tree nuts, and more. USDA’s next trade mission heads to Mexico in November.

Turkeys Raised Down Three Percent from 2024

The latest Turkeys Raised Report from the USDA shows a continued decline in the total number of birds produced in the U.S. since 2016, with the only bounce higher coming from 2022 to 2023. Turkeys raised in the U.S. during 2025 are forecasted to be 195 million, down three percent from the number raised during 2024. The top six states accounted for a total of 68 percent of all turkeys produced in the U.S. during 2025. The largest turkey-producing state is Minnesota at 32 million turkeys, unchanged from the previous year. Second-place North Carolina produced 28 million turkeys, up four percent from a year ago. Arkansas produced 22 million turkeys, down 12 percent from last year. Indiana produced 20 million turkeys, unchanged from 2024. Missouri produced 15 million turkeys, down three percent from last year. Virginia, down two percent from the previous year, produced 15 million turkeys.

Corn and Soybean Stocks are Lower

The USDA’s Grain Stocks Report showed corn stocks down 13 percent from last year, soybean stocks are eight percent lower, and all wheat stocks are up six percent from 2024. Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 1.53 billion bushels, down 13 percent from September 1, 2024. Both on-farm and off-farm stocks were down from last year. Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 316 million bushels, down eight percent from September 1, 2024. Both on-farm and off-farm stocks were lower. All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 2.12 billion bushels, up six percent from a year ago. Based on the 2024 end of the marketing year analysis, corn for grain production was revised up 25 million bushels from the prior estimate. 2024 soybean production was revised up 7.74 million bushels from the previous estimate. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Commodity Costs and Returns at 1 p.m. CDT

Cotton System Consumption and Stocks at 2 p.m. CDT

Fats and Oils -- August Oilseed Crush Report at 2 p.m. CDT

Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

Scattered showers are moving through the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning with a string of showers found in the Plains as well. Some of this activity may last into the afternoon. Much of the country will be drier Wednesday as temperatures remain very warm for the beginning of October.